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NHL, NBA & MLB Sports Betting Picks — Verified +19.8% ROI Track Record by Gridiron & Wine

Gridiron & Wine — Sports Analytics by Jessica Gridiron

Using advanced statistical modeling to find
the biggest edges in the market

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Built for the bettor in between

If you’re tired of cappers who only show you their winners, but doing your own handicapping feels impossible — this is for you.

+18.9%
ROI
2025-26 All Sports
365-304
Record
54.6% hit rate
+183.3u
Net Units
969u risked
669
Plays
2025-26 All Sports
Odds Available At All
Major Sportsbooks
Daily Net Units — May 2026
21-22 · +11.0% ROI · +6.25u
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
1
—
2
-0.18u
3
+0.10u
4
+3.20u
5
-1.49u
6
-2.50u
7
+2.25u
8
+0.84u
9
-3.00u
10
-1.48u
11
+5.05u
12
+1.00u
13
-1.28u
14
+2.10u
15
-2.50u
16
+0.89u
17
-1.00u
18
+2.90u
19
+1.35u
20
—
21
—
22
—
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Cumulative P/L — All Sports
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How It Works

Data-Driven Discipline

Our models don't guess. They quantify edges through rigorous walk-forward validation, then deliver only the plays
that matter.

01

Model Identifies Edges

Expected goals, Corsi, xG projections, starting pitcher models, pace-adjusted efficiency, and more — each sport gets its own purpose-built model validated across multiple seasons of out-of-sample data.

02

Plays Delivered Daily

When the model finds a gap between its projected win probability and the market's implied odds, you get a play card with full statistical backing before scheduled start times.

03

Track Record Speaks

Every play is logged, timestamped, and graded. No cherry-picking, no deleted losses. The public results page shows everything -- wins and losses alike.

Real Play Examples

What You Get
Every Day

Each play card shows the full model breakdown — projected runs, batting/pitching matchups, agreement across our three MLB models, and the reasoning. Members see one of these for every qualifying game.

Example · MLB · Apr 24, 2026
10:10 PM ET · Dodger Stadium
Cubs
Jameson Taillon
CONFIRMED
3.85 ERA · 1.18 WHIP
@
Dodgers
Emmet Sheehan
CONFIRMED
5.57 ERA · 1.42 WHIP
3u Underdog Edge
AGREEMENT: MPDM D2 KCM
Cubs ML +135
3u
Model: 50.2% Market: 42.6% Edge: +7.6%
CHCRun ProjectionLAD
4.62
Proj Runs
3.95
50.2%
Win Prob
49.8%
CHCBattingLAD
0.331
wOBA
0.318
112
wRC+
102
0.748
OPS
0.704
0.176
ISO
0.152
CHCStarter ComparisonLAD
3.85
ERA
5.57
3.91
xFIP
4.88
CHCBullpen Form (L7)LAD
2.84
BP ERA
5.50
All three MLB models (MPDM, D2, KCM) aligned on Cubs ML — full agreement is our highest-confidence tier.
Sheehan's xFIP runs +0.97 worse than Taillon's, and his rolling ERA is 1.88 runs higher — LAD's pitching edge is overstated by name recognition alone.
LAD bullpen ERA over the trailing 7 days is 2.66 runs worse than Chicago's — fatigue spot the market hasn't priced in.
Closing line moved from +135 to +142 on the dog — sharp money chased our entry.
W · CHC 6, LAD 4 · +4.05u
Example · NHL · Apr 5, 2026
9:00 PM ET · Ball Arena · Central Division
Blues (32-43)
Joel Hofer
CONFIRMED
19-22-4 · 2.96 GAA · .907 SV%
@
Avalanche (49-25)
Mackenzie Blackwood
CONFIRMED
35-15-4 · 2.78 GAA · .904 SV% · B2B
2u Heavy Dog
MODEL: MPDM DEEP-NHL
Blues ML +190
2u
Model: 40.7% Market: 33.2% Edge: +7.5%
STLGoal ProjectionCOL
2.68
Exp Goals
3.26
40.7%
Win Prob
59.3%
STL5v5 ProcessCOL
47.8%
Corsi%
53.5%
48.2%
xG%
54.1%
Joel HoferGoalie MatchupMackenzie Blackwood
2.96
GAA
2.78
.907
SV%
.904
-2.4
GSAx (5v5)
+1.8
Blues priced as a +190 road dog — market has them at 33.2% to win, but our model gives them 40.7%, a +7.5pp residual.
Rest mismatch: STL had two days off; COL on the back end of a back-to-back. Our divisional B2B fade tier runs +9.4u over 3 seasons.
Strength differential of 0.20 — close enough that the model doesn't extreme-discount the underdog despite the standings gap.
MPDM and Deep-NHL both flagged the dog independently — cross-model agreement on a heavy dog is rare and historically high-EV.
W · STL 3, COL 2 · +3.80u
See Today's Plays
Coverage

Sports We Model

Purpose-built models for each league.
No recycled formulas.

🏒
NHL

Goals-first pregame model with goalie matchup analysis, xG projections, and edge-based play selection

Live
⚾
MLB

Starting pitcher models, bullpen leverage, park factors, and platoon splits

Live
🏀
NBA

Pace-adjusted efficiency, rest advantages, and lineup-based projections

Live
🏈
NFL

Game script modeling, QB matchups, weather adjustments, and situational edges

Season starts Sept 2026
🏀
College Basketball

Tempo-adjusted efficiency, conference play dynamics, and tournament modeling

Season starts Nov 2026
🏀
WNBA

Margin-origination spread modeling, MPDM + Four Factors agreement on moneylines, per-season SD calibration

Live
What Members Say

Built for Sharp Bettors

Our members value transparency, discipline, and data over hype.

"Finally, a service that shows the actual model projections instead of just 'trust me bro' picks. The transparency is refreshing."

Marcus T.
Member since March 2026

"The edge monitor is brilliant. Being able to see which edges are performing in real-time keeps me disciplined on sizing."

David R.
Daily player

"Clean design, no noise. Just model output, goalie matchups, and the reasoning behind every play. This is how it should be done."

James K.
Sharp bettor
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